The global ship recycling industry, dominated by South Asia, faces increasing scrutiny over environmental and safety practices. Simultaneously, a growing move away from coal in the run-up to 2050 will threaten coal ports, challenging them to diversify. This study explores the potential of embedding ship recycling into the transport geography of coal ports that are diversifying to circular economy hubs. We examine a case study of the Port of Newcastle in Australia, currently the ‘world’s largest coal port’. Using a System Dynamics (SD) model, the study evaluates key factors including global demand, operational costs, carbon credits, and recycled material revenues across four scenarios. The base scenario shows the PON facility is unviable at a break-even price of $540 per LDT compared to South Asia’s $780 per LDT. However, profitability improves when key factors such as carbon credits and recycled steel prices are optimised, highlighting the potential for economic viability with targeted policy and market reforms. Further Monte Carlo analysis reveals a wide range of potential profit outcomes, from $-1,284,205 to $1,077,655, reflecting the financial uncertainties and risks associated with the facility. Overall, the study recommends reforms to stabilise the Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) market, develop a green steel industry, and promote sustainable ship design. With these measures, the proposed ship recycling facility at the PON would be profitable, economically sustainable, and well-positioned to compete globally, paving the way for a shift in the geography of ship recycling from unsustainable facilities in South Asia to developed countries with higher environmental and safety standards. This transition would support Australia’s circular economy aspirations, foster global best practices in sustainable ship recycling, and contribute to achieving its environmental goals.

中文翻译：

---

回收船舶，振兴港口：评估通过船舶回收实现煤炭港口多样化的经济可行性

以南亚为主的全球拆船行业面临着越来越严格的环境和安全实践审查。与此同时，到 2050 年，人们越来越多地远离煤炭，这将威胁到煤炭港口，迫使它们实现多元化。本研究探讨了将船舶回收嵌入煤炭港口运输地理的潜力，这些港口正在向循环经济中心多元化。我们研究了澳大利亚纽卡斯尔港的案例研究，该港目前是“世界上最大的煤炭港口”。该研究使用系统动力学 （SD） 模型，评估了四种情景中的关键因素，包括全球需求、运营成本、碳信用额和回收材料收入。基本情景显示，PON 设施在每个 LDT 540 美元的盈亏平衡价格下是不可行的，而南亚的每个 LDT 为 780 美元。然而，当碳信用额和回收钢材价格等关键因素得到优化时，盈利能力会提高，从而凸显出通过有针对性的政策和市场改革实现经济可行性的潜力。进一步的蒙特卡洛分析揭示了广泛的潜在利润结果，从 -1,284,205 美元到 1,077,655 美元，反映了与该设施相关的财务不确定性和风险。总体而言，该研究建议进行改革，以稳定澳大利亚碳信用单位 （ACCU） 市场，发展绿色钢铁行业，并促进可持续的船舶设计。通过这些措施，拟议的 PON 拆船设施将是有利可图的、经济上可持续的，并且具有全球竞争力，为船舶拆解地理从南亚不可持续的设施转移到具有更高环境和安全标准的发达国家铺平了道路。 这一转变将支持澳大利亚的循环经济愿望，促进可持续船舶回收的全球最佳实践，并有助于实现其环境目标。